S&P 500 Index & The Black Swan

In the real world the good news of more Fed to overpower the bad news of the pandemic held water until the realization that an incessant wall of regulation earnings warnings along with a fearful prognosis of no stopping the spread of infection and re-infection have brought a momentary hiatus.   

Meanwhile in chartland we still see our black swan as it struggles with lack of oxygen at this altitude and makes a final honk before inevitably plunging back to ground zero where a less onerous environment for mere cygnus niger awaits complete with endless virginals for eternal company or until duty calls once more.

S&P 500 Index

This weekly chart sees the reading of Primary [5] of Cycle V with Intermediate (3) concluding.

This daily chart looks for and finds the black swan...

quaerite et invenietis

LINK: Corona Virus Update - Maybe Hope
LINK: Silver spot XAG/USD charts

S&P 500 Index

Here are daily and hourly charts for S&P 500 index.

The daily chart indicated that the trend is moving to exponential.

The hourly chart points to a pull back.

The hourly also observes a 1.62 extension with 3200 for the barrier..

LINK: Bitcoin BTC/USD

S&P 500 Index (updated 8th Nov)

 The recent price action gives the ending diagonal option further credibility.

 

The ending diagonal view supports the conclusion of Primary [5] and requires an appropriate assignment of the Cycle degree labeling.

From 3rd Nov.:
The S&P 500 has repeatedly refused to obey the local customs for projection. But when all the refusals are exhausted the projection will still remain. And we have been repeatedly shown what to expect as soon as the punch bowl is taken away. Rumor has it that the longer they take to admit their insanity, the more insane the markets are going to be.

LINK:   Spot Gold Chart, XAU/USD

S&P 500 Index - Double Trouble

This 4-hourly chart of the S&P 500 index looks at the rising wedge patterns.

Crash Test Dummy

S&P500 Index - Dance-a-Lot

In days of olde when FEDs were bold this story was told of Dance-a-Lot. NB: I have found that less than 15 minute data intervals can induce psychotic episodes leading to delusional trading which is only treatable by artificial intelligence and bots by means of DNA replica cloning whereby you get to say hello to yourself.

LINK: S&P 500 Index - The Time Machine 

LINK: US Dollar Index, DXY - The End is Nigh  

S&P 500 Index - The Time Machine

Here (in the camp of the unwashed minority view) the inordinate simplicity of the S&P 500 chart pattern continues to receive overwhelming adoration and applause.
The game rules say that good things must also come to an end and so it is for the magic of the make-believe wonderland where happiness has ruled over sanity since the FED opened their special toolbox with the debt transferring time machine in it. The machine works only as long as the cloak of invisibility remains effective, but now there has been a leak and everyone knows all about it.

LINK:  British Government - continues-to-aid-repression-in-human-rights-abusing-countries-new-data-shows

S&P 500 Index

The Daily S&P chart has a fairly straight forward pattern diagnosis. There is nothing even remotely unusual or confusing. The rising wedge is typically bearish when markets are not being forced by inevitably ruinous intervention practices.

[5] = V = SC1

S&P 500 Index (weekly)

The radical view is supported by Chicago...

S&P 500 Index

This hourly view of the end wave of the SPX Super-cycle is quite important historically. If this is actually it now. It follows that the correction will comprise Cycle degree legs and be more significant than expected and could be active, with appropriate opposing trends, for more than one decade. The emergence on the other side will be something to hope for and eventually see a confirmation for.

The JSE entered the Super-cycle correction 18 months ago and is now commencing the Primary [C] leg of the Cycle degree A leg..

S&P 500 Index

This 30 minute chart of the S&P 500 index allows for the top to be now or with wave [v] no more than wave [iii]. It depends on the timing of the arrival of the urgency.

LINK:  Whats Happening in South Africa

S&P 500 Index (4-Hourly)

This 4-hourly chart of the S&P 500 Index has a simple message.

S$P 500 Index (weekly)

This weekly chart of the S&P 500 index suggests that we will be getting the long deserved consequence of the delinquent behaviour of unregulated capitalism and related greed.

Otherwise known as what goes undeservedly up must come down. 

And who better than than a deluded believer in unregulated capitalism to be the witless cheerleader.

(Not that there are any better candidates).

Unfortunately for the common man it is a story of theft of life support by those who have too much already and should know better. Just proves we are all with inadequate intelligence to protect ourselves from our own human nature.

So the FED spooked the market by giving a story of rate increases. The opaque buyback money-tree syndrome suddenly became transparent and revealed a market full of zombies. The crash had momentum enough to annihilate the markets until Trump intervened.

But now the market knows that it is on evaporating life support and it has been feeding on carcinogens. It knows that it must seek a cure for its self-inflicted cancer instead of just taking more pain-relieving opioids. The cancer has now reached the brain and the inevitable is now arriving. The buyback syndrome is ending and the zombies are coming out of hiding.

The longer the syndrome is maintained the worse the end result will be. But this has been the story for the last decade already and the end result has just been delayed and delayed whilst its prospective impact has been growing exponentially. The medicine has never been taken, but the world moves on and toys with concepts such as alternatives to the unsavory banking model that is still in use. The Supercycle correction has plenty of room within which it can play out and probably needs to run into the next US Presidential cycle.

Technically, the chart indicates that the corrective cycle C4 was 9 years (extended by interventions that commenced following the dotcom bubble) and the C5 cycle leading to the conclusion of Supercycle SC1 has been manufactured over a further 10 year period. 

It is historical fact that the deregulation of the capital markets that were initiated by approvals given by the naive President Clinton and the over-lobbied (heavily bribed) Congress have brought about massive wrongdoing. Whilst cosmetics have been applied the gross wrongdoings have continued unabated and the Congress remains conflicted by its own corruption whilst Dems have seemingly concentrated most all of their time on distractions and deflections that have the symptoms of obsessive compulsive disorder and point to some very serious issues that are being avoided.

LINK: Spot Gold

LINK: Slowing Economy, Plunging Stocks Are Forcing The Fed’s Hand

LINK: China A50 (Weekly)

S&P 500 Index (Weekly)

This weekly view of the S&P 500 index depicts the final 3 Cycles leading to the Super Cycle, SC2 correction of 2007/09 along with the following Cycle 1 comprised of 5 Primary waves. This is the conventional Elliott Wave consensus view (agreed). The Caldaro OEW analysis exchanges Primary [3] and [4] with Cycle 1 and 2 whilst presuming that C1 is Primary [1].  

SMI, SWI20, plus overlays of S&P 500, weekly & hourly

 The cycle II marker is cast in stone at the low of the start of 2016. The SMI has given a 5 wave pattern from there to the recent ATH. Kindly raise your glass to the SMI and congratulate it on this sterling achievement. What was that? Yes, of course, this means that conventional Primary wave [2] is underway. Jump, dive, however you want to take the plunge, just no skinny dipping please, this is a family show.

Overlaying the above with the S&P 500 line chart shows some close correlation. The start at II is aligned and there is close alignment at (4). The alignment at [1] is quite precise as seen in the hourly view. The question of "Does it matter to the S&P 500 if the Swiss index is busy with a prospective 15% correction?" makes the assumption of a target close to (4) for the SMI chart.

The hourly view:

S&P 500 Index

Developing, perhaps from the transfer of AI into the VIX, this (4-hourly) conventional chart presents the correction of Intermediate wave (1) and suggests that a 5-3-5 with target of 4 is in the process of evolution.

S&P 500 Index

This interpretation of the hourly chart of the S&P 500 index observes that Intermediate wave (1) has yet again just concluded. This time it has virtually crept to the mark and in a similar manner away from it. An observer could be forgiven for disregarding this opinion if not for the quite explicit supporting divergence. 

Similarly...

S&P 500 Index & SMI charts

This next pattern analysis of the daily S&P 500 index sees an abc pattern of the giant B-wave. Best fit is 5-3-5.

This next pattern analysis of the hourly SMI chart sees the same thing. Also 5-3-5.

S&P 500 Index (end of March)

This pattern analysis of the hourly S&P 500 index chart sees the completion of Intermediate wave (1). There is an observance of alternation throughout. Minor wave 3 is 61.8% of Minor wave 1. A similar relationship occurs between Minor waves 2 and 4. Since wave 3 cannot be the shortest of waves 1, 3 and 5 then wave 5 is required to be shorter than wave 3, which it is. 

LINK:  Download Elliott Wave Principle by Prechter

LINK:  Gold Price ($US/Oz) chart

LINK:  US Dollar Index (DXY) chart

S&P 500 Index

Update: 22nd March:

The present support can be the end of Minor wave 2 of Intermediate wave (3) as generally accepted, or this can be Minor wave a of Intermediate wave (2) with end of month target at the lower channel boundary and the end of the previous lower order (Minor) wave 4 price.

The 15 minute chart below shows that the unexpected move up into another minute 5th wave caused the need to recount the internals of minute wave [iii] and learn from the deception. The upward behaviour appeared forced and driven by unnatural market intervention.

Update: 20th March:

A closer look at the last wave shows the extended wave [v] of Minor wave 5 and the commence of the correction of Intermediate wave (1) with typical target being 4.

Previous: 15th March:

This chart of the the S&P500 is preferred because it the least demanding, the most simple and thereby quite compelling. Unfortunately it appears to be a minority view.