Tuesday, 21 April 2020

XAU/USD w/ updates

Update 27th May:
The force has left them. The month of May is soon to be departing, the moon is inverted and the exuberance has been totally irrational. The target of 1800 seems to be inadequate.




From: 25th May:
Leaving all nonsense behind and moving along: the symmetrical triangle is seen in its bullish form and adjusts the target to 1800. This target for Minor 5 is thereby 0.62 of 3. Minute wave [i] is looking to be the largest wave within 5




How Fear, Groupthink Drove Unnecessary Global Lockdowns


From 22nd May:
The bucket of cold water was overdue for the zombie scarecrow markets but the gold baby also took a small hit from the schizos. Meanwhile the result provides reinforcement for the triangle target.
The alternate take sees Primary [3] coming soon but either way its a reversal point.








From 20th May:
The location of the vertical move [iii]'-[iv]' has a central role in this analysis.







From 12th May:
This 2-hourly chart sees a symmetrical triangle nearing completion. It has a Minor wave 3 of  less than Minor 1 which requires a Minor 5 to be less than Minor 3. The likelihood of this is supported by the expectation for the break out target from the triangle. 
The pattern for XAU/USD is a choice between an extending Primary wave [3] and the impending end of the bull super cycle due to the expected upcoming (1) turning out to be [5]. The current choice is favored due to several gold related instruments being in need of an extended [3].  Example of this is given by the Gold Fields chart below.


Example Gold Fields: Primary wave [1] must not be shared by Primary wave [4]. The offending wave is then assigned as mid-3rd reset into the extension of [3]







Update 30th April:
This daily chart reviews the progress of Cycle V. It takes the option for an extension of Primary wave [3] which is prompted by the lack of alternation between Intermediate waves (2) and (4).  Thereby the Primary wave [3] is seen to be repeating the price action between [2] and [3]' from [4]' with a price target of 1990. 
Fib ratios abound, not all of which are indicated.
The previous post of 21st April (see below) has examined the recent action which is now seen to be completing a horizontal extension of Intermediate wave (2) of the impulsive extension of Primary [3].



LINKS:

The 5 Cycles of Gold

The Dow Super Cycle


Update - 28th April:
This 15 minute chart sees Minor wave 1 with good impulsive form and wave 2 approaching the target zone with good corrective form.  




LINK: WTI/USD - Oil Spot v Oil Futures

LINK: S&P 500 Futures Index - Turn Point Projection



From 21st April:
The leading diagonal confirming of Intermediate wave (1) promises more from this bull trend.
The 2 (and 4) hourly pattern introduces some symmetry along with a CCI predicted divergence to give the high probability notion that Intermediate wave (2) or A has now concluded.






My wave numbering:


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