This study of the spot price of gold ($US/Oz) hinges upon the view that a Cycle degree bear trend for most resources ended 2016, annotated as II. Accordingly it is a given that a Cycle degree bull trend commenced following that event.
The first of the required five Primary waves [1] arrived with alacrity. The structure of this wave is not altogether previously unseen, but it does start out with a heavily compressed Intermediate 1-2 combination that requires some lateral thinking. It also has a sharp Intermediate 5th wave with a pronounced hiatus at mid-3rd Minor wave. So it would naturally be easier to disregard the challenge of this count and assume an ABC structure.
As if that were not enough to be challenged with, there has followed an extended Primary [2].
Thereafter all was looking good for a Primary [3] that would be a text book structure with a dimension of 1.62 [1] and this may yet come to pass. But there is another possibility that is shown above. This sees Primary wave [3] as concluded and Primary wave [4] with scant room for manoeuvre. It also puts [3] < [1] which requires [5] < [3].
Should the price action enter wave [1] then it would either be another pronounced hiatus within the extending Intermediate 3rd of the alternate count or the confirmation of an ABC retrace within an extending Cycle II. Just another challenge.
To tip the scales with these options is the next challenge. What would cause gold to enter another bear trend at this venture? A repeat of 2012-16?
Common practice would readily assume that there is no trending. During such amorphic times (months, years, decades) the counts are successive zigzags.
A peek at the XAU/GBP monthly chart could be helpful, maybe...
The monthly chart puts a Primary wave [3] of 1.62 of Primary wave [1] at the half-way mark..
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