Thursday 28 February 2019

US Dollar Index, DXY

DXY weekly:  Cycle wave II was 5-3-5 so that box is ticked. Primary wave [1] is supported by magnificent weekly divergences into both its beginning and its end, not to mention the close call with the 61.8% retrace of II. Now 3 waves down and 3 up precede this dip back into weakness. Rates of decline have been quite consistent so far. The projection for the end of Primary wave [2] employs similar declinations and it now targets the end of Intermediate wave (4) of Primary wave [1]...   pure guesswork...    


Wednesday 27 February 2019

S&P500 Index

Common sense also sees month end completion of the rebound.  


Monday 25 February 2019

S&P500 Index

The end of (complex) wave 4 is pinpointed from which the price movement of wave 1 is projected.
The calculated number is 2797.75


Wednesday 20 February 2019

DXY, US$ Index

The US$ index, DXY, has completed Primary impulsive wave [1] and was trying to disguise corrective wave [2]. Weekly and daily charts...



Saturday 16 February 2019

S&P 500 Status - With Draft Concept for a Screenplay.

The rebound is clearly motivated by the reverse of the sentiment that caused the dip. The FED effect has returned to bemuse with corrupted capitalism including the boll weevil of buy backs combined with boardroom bonus schemes. Rewarding the perps of mass industrial zombification whilst deluding investors. The dip has given a glimpse of the reality of the reality.


The daily chart shows that the top end of the resistance band has been reached. The 61.8% retrace level is some distance beneath. One word of potential doubt from the soothsayers and whoops. But it still looks bullish until [2] is breached. 
Whilst the horror movie trailer revealed the awaiting, destructive power of drawing back the curtain on the truth about the extent of the zombies, there is still the possibility that a SIV with AAA rating can be created for the ongoing furtherance of buy backs and sold to the stupid, like with the sub prime mortgage magic. The modern wonders of self-regulating capitalism are surely endless and no doubt able to serve any chosen purpose that transfers the wealth. Just keep it too confusing for the plebs to understand what it will do to them going forward.

LINK:   DXY, weekly, daily...
LINK:   Climate Change

Monday 11 February 2019

DXY - US Dollar Index

This weekly chart identifies the obvious impulsive nature of Primary wave [1] along with the unconfirmed Minor B-wave of the expected Intermediate (A) leg of Primary wave [2].



LINK:  Gold $US charts

Gold ($US/Oz)


This long term futures weekly chart (log scale) shows why some project a $700 correction target corresponding with [4]. The prospective continuation of the correction has been interrupted by a bounce of the RSI which has returned to the borderline of overbought without achieving a higher high. 


This daily chart of the $US spot price is more suitable. The extension of wave (2) has a more acceptable form. The negative divergence supports the view that minor wave 1 is concluding.
However, should the US Dollar weaken with momentum then the corrective waves of Intermediate wave (3) of Primary wave [1] can be small and of short duration, whilst the bullish action accelerates.
The link to the DXY chart appears below:



LINK:  DXY, US Dollar Index - weekly chart

Sunday 10 February 2019

S&P 500 Index v Nasdaq 100 Index

S&P500 index overlayed with Nasdaq 100 index.

My preferred observations atm: 
  • For this chart, these indices share the same count.
  • [iii] is extended.
  • RSI negative divergence supports that impulsive wave 1 has completed. 
  • RSI positive divergence supports that wave [b] is current.
  • The typical target [iv] awaits the 2.
  • The second chart does not detract.


Wednesday 6 February 2019

S&P 500 Index

Update (8th Feb am):
The correction is accompanied by a swoon of the RSI, prompting a recount...



Previously:
This 30 minute chart of the S&P 500 index finds a relationship. A neo-classic in the making?




         Emmerson, Lake & Palmer