Gold Cycles

The behavior of the US Dollar price for gold since being set "free" in 1971 provides an excellent exercise for the demonstration of the Elliott Wave Theory.

My labels are annotated as follows:

Bitcoin BTC/USD BitFinex (updated)

 Update 17th Jan 2020:

The turn into Intermediate wave (3) came on the 18th Dec, just the day after my previous post (see that post below). The creation of a lower low at that turning point also gave a 5-3-5 pattern for Intermediate wave (2). Since then  Minor wave 1 has so far achieved partial completion into Minute wave [iv] which can now see the turn up into Minute [v] for the completion of Minor 1 with a typical target of [v]=[i]. After that the Minor wave 2 corrective has a typical target of [iv].

From 17th Dec 2019:

This daily chart for BTC/USD sees the near term prospect of the turn into Intermediate wave (3) of Primary wave [3]. 

Wave Table:

S&P 500 Index

Here are daily and hourly charts for S&P 500 index.

The daily chart indicated that the trend is moving to exponential.

The hourly chart points to a pull back.

The hourly also observes a 1.62 extension with 3200 for the barrier..

LINK: Bitcoin BTC/USD

Copper ($US/lb) w/update 13th Jan 2020.

13th Jan 2020:

 This 4-hourly view for the USD Copper futures takes a closer look at the price pattern since the commence of Primary wave [3]. Intermediate wave (3) is seen to have subdivided into the Minor waves within which Minor wave 3 is seen to be extending away from its mid-point reset and is reaching for the top of Minute wave [i] of the extension pattern.

12th Dec 2019:
This weekly overview of copper futures sees indication of the commence of Primary wave [3] of Cycle III. This can also be a minor upturn within a slow-moving sideways extension of Primary wave [2]. Correlations between resource sector constituents appears eroded. Commodity prices remain generally suppressed whilst PM's are seeing some tentative and nervous safe haven and speculative interest.

Goldfields ADR, Daily

This daily data chart of the New York ADR of Goldfields is annotated to indicate that Cycle V  has entered Primary [3] just over a year ago and is now emerging from a volatile mid-wave (3) regenerative hiatus.

Standard EW nomenclature:
(not OEW)

UK100, Monthly

The monthly data for the UK100 index during the last decade or so is seen to produce a completed Cycle degree pattern of five Primary waves. However the pattern can only be counted as an ending diagonal. But this fits with the more general view of western indices where Cycle wave V is seen as either complete or in the final stage of completion. This is the completion of a Supercycle. The correction target is typically the end of the 4th wave, being point IV.

S&P 500 Supercycle Analysis:

The data prior to the inception of the S&P500 index is an amalgamation of the US stock market back to that date.

There are two approaches to the S&P500 long term analysis: either look only at data since the inception of the S&P500 in 1957, or to include an amalgamation of the entire US stock market before that date as part of the analysis. This is a look at the entire market.

The data only goes back to 1871. This bull wave count assumes up to the market peak of 1929 a five wave impulse can be counted. This may have been a Super Cycle wave (I), and the Great Depression was a component of Super Cycle wave (II) correction. 

Supercycle (IV) is expected to be a sharp zigzag of about 4 years duration with target of IV.

LINK:  Copper Chart

Copper Futures ($US/lb)

The weekly chart indicates that the resources Cycle III that commenced 2016 appears to have completed the Primary wave [2] at the 61.8% retrace of the Primary wave [1]. Accordingly the resources cycle is indicated as entering the Primary wave [3].

Otherwise there is a big problem.

XAU/USD, Spot Gold (updated 2nd Dec)

Update: 2nd Dec 2019:
The support level for a badly battered gold has been fairly well established.
The inadequacy of alternation between Intermediate (2) and (4)' leans toward the count for (5) of [3] becoming the count for the further extended (3) of [3].
The retrace of (3)' of 38.2% is typical. A positive divergence is being resisted but the prospect for upside from the Minuette (ii) this morning is looking quite good, albeit within an ongoing sideways constraint.

Update 29th Nov:
The channel has a break out with test at [ii].

When they get dizzy give them a pen.

Update 18th Nov:

The 15 minute data view sees the completion of Minute wave [ii] with equal legs abc and positive divergence from sub 30 on the RSI. Wave [i] is seen as yet another leading diagonal which is indicative of highly unusual circumstances that are influencing the price behavior.

si metus foetet

From 12th Nov:
Wave 4 is seen as a double zigzag. The final leg is approved by the reverse 1.62 ratio extension.

From 4th Nov:
Within the Primary wave [3] the Intermediate 4th wave for Spot gold, XAU/USD is reviewed due to a perceived inadequacy of alternation with Intermediate wave (2). The previously ascribed impulsive Minor wave 1 of wave (5) is incorporated into the complex mid-wave extension. The C-leg is then a horizontal abc that runs into the apex of the triangle where it concludes the extended Intermediate wave (4) following the break out and test of the upper resistance line. The second break out is thereby seen as the commence of Intermediate wave (5) provided that the expected pull back to test does not go below point (4).   

Wave numbering:

S&P 500 Index (updated 8th Nov)

 The recent price action gives the ending diagonal option further credibility.

 

The ending diagonal view supports the conclusion of Primary [5] and requires an appropriate assignment of the Cycle degree labeling.

From 3rd Nov.:
The S&P 500 has repeatedly refused to obey the local customs for projection. But when all the refusals are exhausted the projection will still remain. And we have been repeatedly shown what to expect as soon as the punch bowl is taken away. Rumor has it that the longer they take to admit their insanity, the more insane the markets are going to be.

LINK:   Spot Gold Chart, XAU/USD

XAU/USD, Spot Gold

Wave 2 extended as the world waited for the futile Fed. November is good for gold. The Fed is good for nothing new.

S&P 500 Index

The chart indicates the progress of the bear trend which is assumed Cycle degree (but can be one order above). Intermediate (A) is underway with the Minor C wave active. So far the Minute [a] and [b] waves have completed and now the commence of Minute [c] is indicated to be highly probable. 

 

S&P 500 Futures

The ongoing denial of the chart is quite amusing. Wishful thinking rules it seems. Signs accumulate to indicate that the Fed props are giving way to the realization of the pretentious accounting practices and economic malaise.

Gold Spot XAU/USD (w/ updates)

 Update 30th Nov:

Update 24th Oct:

Back to the daily chart XAU/USD for a reminder of how Intermediate wave (3) was formed. The test of the resistance has a lot going for it and is virtually unstoppable. As is well known by all, the Intermediate wave (5) has a typical target of being equal to wave (1).

Update 22nd Oct.

This 4-hourly XAU/USD chart sees complex Minor wave 2 at support raising goldbug hopes.

Updated 17th October 2019:

The updated hourly view provides an exercise in application and indicates that the delayed breakout is mustering. 

For those invested in the Old Mutual Gold Fund there is little hope of common sense being saved from the mindless actions of the controlling savages. They cannot begin to understand that their best performing fund is still very busy delivering long awaited returns. At the seasonal peak for gold they proceed to abuse their roles and trash their best performing funds. Absolute insanity has become the hallmark of the new and totally incompetent ruling class of South Africa.

And you want to invest in the ongoing and inevitable consequence?

 

Wave Labels:

From 14th Oct:

The hourly view of the channel points to an upcoming retest of the upper boundary.

For safe havens it has been sell the rumor. Now its a case of may the best algo win. The seasonal shift is another cup of tea leaves and the silver XAG/USD chart pattern is more compact also supportng the Minor wave 4 breakout expectation.

Below is the daily chart of XAU/USD for the past 12 months where the shift against the seasonal chart can be deciphered.

Copper Futures, HG

HG weekly chart has a prospective 3-3-3 pattern for Primary wave [2] and finds the 61.8% retrace with a positive divergence and bounces like a ball of veal.